Futures of the Islamic World

Future studies: needs, facts and prospects *

French version

I feel honored to be amongst such a distinguished assembly of men and women who have contributed so much to the identification of the problems besetting the Islamic World. The subject under consideration is of a highly strategic nature, especially at a time when the world is going through sweeping upheavals and disruptions which have been anticipated for years by specialists of future studies. I therefore have no illusions about the awesome task awaiting us here and am fully aware of the complexity of the subject.

I have been working in the field of future studies for over 25 years and have participated in approximately 200 international conferences and seminars related to this subject. It is the first time, I think, that an international symposium is entirely devoted to the identification and analysis of current and anticipated problems related to Islam. This is a sign of maturity of the Islamic world and similar initiatives must be encouraged in the future with the hope of initiating and supporting concrete research projects in this important area.

Given the countries of origin of the participants in this symposium, I hope that the sponsoring center will consider extending its activities beyond the scope of the Arab World. After all, Arabs account for only 20% of the Muslim population the world over. When dealing with Islam we must all beware of ethnocentric temptations, for Islam calls for diversity which is conducive to unity. This prescription is enshrined in the holy Quran which says "O mankind! Lo! We have created you male and female, and have made you nations and tribes that ye may know one another. Lo! the noblest of you, in the sight of Allah, is the best in conduct." (XLIX, 13).

Accordingly, I consider this symposium to be a sort of rehearsal for other meetings to come and which will be more representative of the realities and potentialities of the Islamic world. We should therefore avoid the confusing generalization which has led the West to apply the specific reality of the Arab region to all the countries of the Islamic World. This is not to be regarded as a critical stand against this symposium, but rather as an expression of a personal reservation concerning possible attempts to confer universal validity on the proceedings and findings of this meeting.

I. THE IMPORTANCE OF FUTURE STUDIES

As we are addressing the future prospects of Islam, allow me, first, to clarify some Islamic concepts. In Islam, a clear distinction must be made between the arabic word "Al Ghayb" (unknown) which is within the realm of God, and the word "Mustaqbal" (future) which implies the anticipation of developments arising from what we do or fail to do today. We are not talking about prophecies but about forecasts. In fact, the word "mustaqbal" does not occur in the Quran. Instead, the Holy Book refers to one of its derivatives which is "mustaqbil." In one of the Quranic verses, it is said:

"Then, when they beheld it as a dense cloud coming toward their valleys, they said: Here is a cloud bringing us rain. Nay, but it is that which ye did seek to hasten, a rain wherein is painful torment" (XLXI-24).

The Quran abounds with references to the notions of perception, outlook and future:

"Oh ye who believe! Observe your duty to Allah. And let every soul look to that which it sent on before for the morrow."
(LIX-18)

"Have they not considered the dominion of the heavens and the earth, and what things Allah has created, and that it may be that their own term drew night? In what fact after this will they believe"? (IXL-18).

"Have they not seen how We have appointed the night that they may rest therein, and the day sight-giving? Lo! therein verily are portents for a people who believe. And (remind them of) the Day when the Trumpet will be blown, and all who are in the heavens and the earth, will start in fear, save him whom Allah wills. And all come unto Him, humbled. And you will see the hills you deemed solid flying with the flight of clouds: the doing of Allah who perfected all things. Lo! He is informed of what ye do" (XXVII-86,87,88).

All these verses from the Holy Quran call on us to make the best possible use of the present and to carefully and intelligently prepare for the future; the future meaning the rest of our life on earth and the hereafter. Here are other Quranic verses to the point:

"And let every soul look to that which it sent on before for the morrow" (LIX-18).

"Send him with us tomorrow that he may enjoy himself and play. And Lo! we shall take good care of him" (XII-12).

"And say not of anything: Lo! I shall do that tomorrow," (XVIII-23).

"No soul knows what it will earn tomorrow, and no soul knows in what land it will die" (XXXII-34).

"Tomorrow they will know who is the rash liar" (LIV-26).

It should be noted that, whereas the first of the above verses calls for exploring the future with a view to strengthening the believer's faith in God, the third and fourth verses dismiss any form of prophecy or divination.

In analyzing the above verses, we realize that the Quran advises against making presumptuous claims of prescience and foreknowledge, but it does recommend that we make projections and work out different options in order to enhance our ability to cope with the requirements of the future and to improve our well-being. Therefore the future should be approached in a pluralistic manner ("futures") thus leaving open a wide range of options.

Islam, I believe, is a "vision" of life on earth and also in the hereafter. It carries a message which calls on Man to seek command of his own fate and to adopt, for this purpose, a dynamic approach in his political, economic, social and cultural initiatives. Indeed, change is an essential ingredient for a better future. Allah, in the Quran, says: "Lo! Allah changeth not the condition of a folk until they (first) change that which is in their hearts" (XIII-11).

One must therefore avoid making any confusion between the concept of "Bid'a" (heresy) and "Ibda'a" (innovation). The first is an opinion or attitude which is in violation of the basic tenets of Islam. The second is, on the contrary, an invitation to introduce changes and innovations in order to stimulate the community's development and vitality. Any living organism which does not accept change is doomed to extinction. This applies to the human being and to his environment as well.

Those who are opposed to change are simply afraid to lose their privileges. That is why they tend to equate change with heresy. This conservative attitude was a determining factor in the decline of the Islamic world and the proliferation of its problems. Attempts to check the imagination and stifle innovative efforts began in the 10th and 11th centuries when so-called religious scholars "closed" the "door" of the "Ijtihad" (research and investigation).

How are we going to make up for lost time? It is in searching for an answer that one may realize the importance of the study of the future and the necessity of scouting and scrutinizing the "horizons". The Quran says in this connection:

"We shall show them Our portents on the horizons and within themselves until it will be manifest unto them that it is the Truth. Doth not thy Lord suffice, since He is witness over all things?" (XLI-53).

The Prophet Muhammad always looked forward to the future and very rarely looked back on the past. It is even said that when he walked he always looked ahead and never returned his head. Islam is a faith and a way of life. It is also an exploratory vision of life on earth and in the hereafter. It is our outlooks that determine our deeds for which we are answerable to ourselves, to society and to God. In Islam Man, whatever he does, is mindful of the impact of his action on the rest of his life as well as on his fate in the Last Judgement.

The Prophet was reported as saying that Islam erases the past (sins), meaning that the new Muslim convert should no longer worry about his previous sins and must, instead, think about the future. It also means that he will be held responsible and answerable for his present and future deeds. The Quran says in this connection "And let every soul look to that which it sent on before for the morrow."

These preliminary remarks are meant to ward off any misconception about Islam which portrays it as being fatalistic to the extent that individuals and society as a whole have no control over themselves. But, as Sheikh Mohamed Belarbi Alaoui put it 40 years ago, we must clean up our own brains thoroughly from the garbage which we have accumulated, before venturing to confront the challenges of the future.

The study of the future is a fairly recent exercise which began at the end of World War II. The first future surveys were carried out by the Rand Corporation for the Pentagon in 1946. That is why there is a fairly close relationship between strategic studies and future studies. It was in the late '60s that future studies began as a distinct activity. Nowadays two-thirds of research work on the future is carried out by military institutions and multinational corporations. Scientific research activities are funded along the same lines.

Future studies are thriving in the industrialized nations which account for 97% of world expenditures on that activity, particularly in the fields of training, documentation, scientific research and its applications. With 80% of the world population, the Third World accounts for less than 3% of the output in the areas of future studies. In fact, the under-estimation of the strategic value of the future is one of the most significant symptoms of under-development. I have always found it difficult to explain a seemingly paradoxical rule whereby the more acute and pressing a phenomenon is, the more we need a long-term approach to deal with it efficiently. Development actually begins when people have secured the means to ponder over their future and reach a consensus on the type of society they wish to build.

Future studies are not a science in themselves, although they make use of exact and social sciences. It is the study from an open perspective and on the basis of alternatives and options, of the various developments of a given situation and of the possible consequences of a particular decision on these developments. This is why we always talk about the futures and not one future. The basic purpose of this exercise is to set desirable objectives and see how to achieve them in the medium or long term by acting upon the present.

When Einstein was asked why he was interested in the future, he simply answered, "I intend to spend the rest of my life there." One of the major functions of future studies is of a pedagogical and educational nature, in that it changes mental attitudes and contributes to reducing the time needed to keep abreast with and make use of a rapidly expanding knowledge.

I have always emphasized that cultural values an essential ingredients of development. There is no doubt that Islam is a powerful factor of change and innovation and as such it is bound to play a vital role in the evolution of our society. This development is all the more likely as more and more people, especially the young, have a thirst for spiritual values to compensate for the excessive materialism of contemporary society.

When young muslims return to their cultural sources, it is because they are seeking guidance from their endogenous values. The future that the Arab-Islamic world is looking for depends on the revival of Islam in its innovative acceptation, not on Islam of blind imitation which led to the fall of a once brilliant civilization. If the Prophet Mohammed and his companions had failed to imagine and visualize the future, there would probably not be as many as 1,200 million Muslims in the world today.

II. CONTEMPORARY REALITIES
A. Distinct features of today's world

The world today has many distinct features, the most prominent of which are:

1. An acceleration of history: the total amount of knowledge accumulated in the world doubles each 7 or 8 years. Every two minutes, there is a new scientific article published somewhere in the world.

2. There is an increasing complexity arising from this accelerated pace of history.

3. A shrinking of time and space.

4. We are moving from a production-based society into a knowledge-based society where human resources are becoming more important than raw materials (whose price is in constant down fall) and where capital is no longer sufficiently profitable unless it is accompanied by "added values" - intellectual input and innovation. To get an idea of the speed at which history is moving and the scope of the changes brought about as well as their implications - especially with respect to human resources -one should read a survey conducted by the Spanish Ministry of Higher Education in which it is said, among other conclusions, that training provided by post-secondary educational institutions does not cater for half of the jobs which will be on the labor market by the year 2000.

5. The role of culture is on the increase. During the first North-South panel sponsored by the Society for International Development (SID) in Rome in May 1978, I pointed out that the most determining aspect in North-South relations was the cultural aspect in that it concerned the values which determine the attitudes of individuals and societies:

"We must address the question of value systems as a matter of priority in order to show that the current crisis between the North and the South cannot be overcome merely through adjustment efforts. In fact, the crisis affects the system as a whole. Any solution therefore requires that the objectives, functions and structures be reconsidered. It also calls for redistribution of power and resources according to values and criteria which must be different from those which brought about the collapse of the current system."

6. Whereas the South population is young and growing fast, that of the North has been stabilized and is ageing. (50% of the Muslim population is under 16 and more than 60% under 30).

7. Advanced technologies such as computer science, cybernetics, robotics, artificial intelligence, space technology and biotechnology are thriving in an industrial sector which devotes 8% to 12% of its turnover to Research and Development, and almost as much to staff training. The so-called "transfer of technology" is a hoax which consists in palming off obsolete products on the South at unjustifiably prohibitive prices. Control of technology requires internally expended efforts and endogenous research. This is not a commodity which can be purchased or sold. It is rather a long process which is based on knowledge and creativity.

8. Information and communication are an ever expanding activity which now accounts for over 40% of the world's industrial output and 60% of the labor force. The gap between the North and the South is incredibly wide, with the North controlling over 85% of information-related activities. We have hardly begun to understand the political, economic, social and cultural impact of this sector.

9. There is need for economic integration and the establishment of economically viable entities. No economic community with less than 150 million inhabitants can make it successfully into the 21st century. (Europe (EEC): 350 millions; North America: 350 millions; South-East Asia: 350 million.)

10. Culture, in its full acceptation, is the most strategically important element in the relation between nations. More than political and economic problems, those related to cultural communication are likely to generate conflicts in the future.

11. The assumption that modernity equals westernization has turned out to be unfounded. This is best evidenced by the Japanese experience. The Nippon Institute for Research Advancement, NIRA, published a report in 1989, entitled" Agenda for Japan in the 90s." Here is an excerpt which I quote quite often:

"It has become necessary to look at the world system differently, to put aside a long sustained view of world order based on stratification under American rule. The new world order may be called the "Age of Diverse Civilizations", based on the emergence of an age with multiple co-existing civilizations. Although Westernization led to progress on a worldwide basis in terms of material civilization, Japan's modernization served as evidence that modernization is difference from westernization."

12. There is a tendency for the "immaterialization of matter" and the "materialization of the immaterial". Less and less raw materials go into industrial products. Conversely, the "grey matter" input generates more and more added value. One example of such "immaterialization" is the increasing utilization of optical fiber which led to a sharp decrease in the use of copper in miniaturized devices, micro-processors and electronic chips, etc. The economy is said to be getting more and more immaterial.

In addition, "new" scientific branches like particle physics, molecular biology and neurophysiology have developed and expanded to the extend that Newton's conventional physics is being challenged on the grounds that it is basically mechanical physics and that it fails to explain all the phenomena that are observable in the universe. Similarly, Descartes' rationalism is being criticized as an obstacle to the understanding of phenomena which do not fall within the rigid scope of Descartes' "method". The consequence is that there is no longer a clear cut demarcation line between the material and immaterial realms.

How can one claim to be a Muslim when one is not in a position to comply even with the first injunction from Allah. Indeed, the first Quranic verse calls on Muslims to "...read in the name of thy Lord..." and yet the majority of Muslims have no direct access to the Holy Book but through intermediaries?

One of the great merits of Islam lies precisely in the fact that it abolished the notion of clergy thus making it possible for the believer to communicate directly with God. Is the scourge of illiteracy still plaguing us just because we cannot afford the necessary means to eradicate it? or is it because there is no political will to fight it? Or maybe because some rulers are afraid that an educated Muslim society might bring about dramatic changes in the way the Muslim community is being ruled and managed?

Since 1901, 540 Nobel Prizes have been awarded so far. Although I have reservations about the selection and nomination procedures which have been applied, I must point out that only three Muslims so far have been awarded the Noble Prize (Abdus Salam, Anouar Al-Sadate and Naguib Mahfuz). They account for merely 0.05% of the total number of winners. Yet those three belong to a community which accounts for over 20% of the world population. The fact is that we have failed to develop our human resources which are the most valuable asset for any society and will be even more so in the future. Worse still is the fact that we are affording the luxury of holding back the emancipation of half the Muslim population, that is the 500 million or more women who are subjected to anti-Islamic policies in complete disregard for the prescriptions of the Quran which caters for all the rights of women. This is one of the most serious and pressing problems which must be dealt with promptly and efficiently in the Muslim world.

B. Main aspects of the backwardness of the Islamic world

Under-development is the major feature of the Islamic world. These are some of its aspects:

1) Economic and socio-cultural data on the Islamic world are unavailable. The best data banks and research programs on Islam are to be found in the industrialized nations. What is striking is that quite a few of these activities are funded by "donations" from our own countries. Another disturbing fact is that we are so poorly informed about our own affairs that it was the Vatican who published in the early 80s the first estimates about the size of the Muslim population on the basis of a survey for which it had mobilized 600 people for 10 years in not less than 200 countries and territories.

2) Our recent history is still colonized. Our present is, for the major part, beyond our control. Even our future is now mortgaged because we tend to rely blindly and unreservedly on scenarios and surveys which are drawn up and doled out to us by others. The chances are that our future might become but a distorted and useless image of the others' past. The stark reality is that the Muslim world has no control over its destiny and that in many areas it enjoys only nominal independence. In short, decolonization is still a remote target. It will take decades before it materializes.

Another distressing evidence of our resignation with respect to our own future is the publication 108 years ago by British orientalist W.C. Blunt of a book entitled "The future of Islam." It was not until 1985, that is 103 years later, that a Muslim from Pakistan, named Ziauddin Sardar, issued a similar book in London, entitled "Islamic Futures."

3) One of the greatest handicaps of the Islamic world nowadays lies in the fact that the ruling elite has no clear vision of the future and its requirements. For it is unaware of the currents of thought that shape today's reality and insensitive to the major preoccupations of the population. On the other hand, it is afraid that any move or initiative by a segment of society might impair or restrict its privileges, its authority and its influence.

Other related shortcomings and drawbacks include a tendency for blind imitation of the West and for docile compliance with "recommendations" coming from foreign intelligence sources and with "directives" issued by advisors sent to us by protecting powers both from the East and the West. In addition, there is no willingness to consult the population, seek its views or accommodate its aspirations. The citizen is kept away from the decision making process. He has no saying in the shaping of programmes and policies which might be instrumental in dealing with the growing challenges, and achieving possible and desirable objectives as well as developing a civil society with the necessary legal safeguards.

Our rulers' attention is focused on the slightest move by their opposition, convinced as they are, that it is intent on toppling them and removing them from power. So much so that when it comes to tackling the ills of society they can only improvise patchwork solutions and soothing measures with no lasting effect. In fact they deliberately avoid any long term planning and concentrate their efforts on time-winning devices and fool themselves with the illusion that they are vigilant enough to foresee the oncoming changes and deal with them as they arise.

4) Illiteracy rates in Islamic countries are the highest in the world. In some of them they are as high as 80%. In most of them they are not lower than 50%. The situation is getting more serious as there are no effective literacy programmes underway. Worse still is the fact that a new type of illiteracy is emerging amongst literates who were subjected to brain-washing and turned into ignorants, totally unaware of what is going in their country and their surrounding. Therefore there is no hope for the Islamic world to improve its condition in the future unless it resolves to wage an effective war against illiteracy by implementing a five-year programme and mobilizing all energies and good will forces to eradicate this scourge for ever. But for the time being the sad reality is that the schooling rate is very low and the number of educational institutions, training centers, libraries, hospitals and publishing houses is far too inadequate.


5) The quasi-absence of scientific research - Scientific research requires a sound academic environment and a solid educational base as well as genuine freedom of expression which fosters creativity and innovation. Unfortunately, scientific research in the Islamic world, and in the Third World at large, is attracting only nominal interest and hardly any investment at all. As a result, the brain-drain phenomenon is on the increase with more and more scientists leaving for other countries either in search of better job opportunities or because their initial environment was not propitious for career development and self-accomplishment.

In this connection, I would like to make it clear that there can be no development of scientific research and, therefore, no progress, without the full restoration of the tradition of the "Ijtihad" (investigative and innovative effort). But the "Ijtihad" approach must be understood and accepted as a modern exercise which preserves the fundamental tenets of Islam and discards all obstacles, new and old alike, which have hindered the emancipation of the Muslim community and kept it in a state of decadence and backwardness. In addition to "Ijtihad", it is essential to provide for the establishment and unrestricted exercise of political pluralism and civil liberties.

6) The worsening crisis of socio-cultural values : most our leaders are suffering from a shaky and dwindling credibility. There is considerable improvisation, carelessness and nepotism in the way they run their country's economy. Bribery amongst them is almost standard practice. Their massive bank transfers abroad - which is hardly a secret - are not only an insurance policy against adversity, but also an efficient tool to manipulate internal policies from the outside. Hence a collapse of moral and ethical values.

7) Exogenous development models : Development planning in our countries is based on blind imitation of the West and heavy dependence on Western assistance. It is sad to note that policy makers in the Islamic world make no allowance for science and technology in their development schemes. They just seem to forget that development is not merely programme for distributing revenue and providing services. "Development is when science becomes culture" ("Le developpement est la science devenue culture") as it was put by Rene Maheu, former Director General of UNESCO.

8) Insufficient respect for the rule of law and lack of safeguards for the protection of civil liberties and human rights: too many islamic countries live under political systems where power is monopolized and where freedom of opinion and of speech are restricted. Where repression, denial of basic rights and violation of human dignity are the daily lot of the citizen, there is no hope to create a favorable environment for the development of human resources and knowledge and for the advancement of society as a whole. The right to speak, to express one's difference, to innovate, to create and to publish one's findings, will remain but an illusion so long as we have not ensured respect for human rights and for the rule of law.

9) The condition of woman in our societies is alarming : The essential role of women in development is not fully recognized. In hampering the advancement of women we are doing no less than preventing the emancipation of half our society. It is a crime that we should keep more than half a billion of our fellow citizens in such precarious conditions. If the Muslim society is essentially a backward one, it is mainly because we have confined women into a marginal role.

As we are addressing the issue of Islam and its prospects, we must make it clear that it is a shame that some practices, lies and other vestiges from bygone times which were motivated by the thirst and struggle for power are still prevailing in our society.

I, myself, am not a specialist of Islamic law. But I did consult qualified experts on the status of women in Islam. They maintain quite clearly that a number of impostors had forged the Prophet's hadiths (texts) or written new ones and claimed they were of the Prophet's doing. Those forged texts, they explained, were taken up by some pseudo religious scholars who kept relating them until nowadays. In so doing, they are distorting the true image of Islam and hindering progress and development in their own society.

One such allegation consists in telling men that they can consult women but should never act upon their advice. For Hadith specialists, to attribute such an allegation to the Prophet, is sheer lie. Another so-called Hadith which was fabricated and spread by tyrants and impostures to suit their own purposes and hold back the thrust of the Muslim community, claims that when the Prophet was asked by his daughter about the most suitable thing a woman can do, he allegedly answered that "she should see no man and arrange for no man to see her." This is a fictitious hadith and a total fabrication which has nothing to do with the Prophet, especially that it is in blatant contradiction with Quranic prescriptions.

When we consult reference books on Hadith and read the writings of specialized commentators on the Prophet's deeds and sayings, we realize that a large number of women were legal experts in Islamic law, custodians and relaters of Hadith or even soldiers fighting side by side with men to uphold the banner of Islam. To give but one example, Karima Bint Ahmed from Marw, knew by heart the whole corpus of the "Sahih" of Al Bukhary. She received praise and recognition for her outstanding achievement, from Hafiz Ibn Hajjar Ashkalani, in his famous book on the work of "Al Bukhary" entitled "Al Fath Al Barry."

I do not wish to dwell too long on this subject, but I hope that the distinguished scholars who are with us today will enlighten the audience with the Prophet's sayings and deeds calling for women to be respected, honored and treated on equal footing with men in the spiritual field as well as in earthly matters and dealings.

Another evidence of the marginal status of women is the fact that there are hardly any women attending this symposium. I kept telling the sponsors of this gathering that it was necessary to provide for equal representation of women in this meeting, especially that we are discussing the future of the entire Muslim community. I reminded them that during his "Farewell pilgrimage" just before he died, the Prophet had called on his community "to treat women well." What good will it do us to keep her chained in ignorance and confined in a marginal status with hardly any role to play in public life?

I must emphasize that there is no future for Islam without effective involvement of women in the community's affairs. There is no prospect for any Muslim society which will continue to deny women the rights granted to her by Islam. I believe that this matter demands urgent attention and consideration from all those who care about the future of the Islamic community and who wish to stimulate our potentialities and creativeness so that we may grasp and cope with the current problems and the challenges ahead.

The condition of women leaves much to be desired throughout the world, particularly in under-developed countries where this condition reflects the strong relationship which exists between the economic and socio-cultural aspects of development, on one hand, and the protection of public liberties and human rights, on the other. Within the Islamic world, Arab countries are even worse off than the others in the fields of education and scientific research.

Women's condition in the Islamic world, and more particularly in Arab countries, is a real challenge for all of us. It calls for serious social surveys and analyses, and requires a great deal of self-criticism as well as the rehabilitation and mobilization of "Ijtihad" resources. We must take a fresh look at the original sources of our culture, and read again and more carefully, in the light of modern developments, the teachings of the Quran. I am sure we will end up with a deeper understanding of the nature and scope of our problems. We will also come out with a clear vision of the solutions which are needed in the short and medium term in order to cope with the demands and challenges arising from the fast running movement of history.


I strongly believe that the status of women is one of the most pressing and challenging issues with which we are confronted today. We must stand up to the challenge at once, and look for appropriate solutions by relying on ourselves, by using our own resources, by mobilizing all good will forces and by refraining from imposing on women any conditions other than those required of men.

C. Problems requiring urgent solutions

a) Muslim minorities : There are Muslim minorities which are fighting for survival within larger domineering groups. Some of them found themselves isolated following the sudden interruption of a merger-process with other segments of larger communities. Others stayed behind and clung to their land after the ebbing of Islamic civilization in which they used to thrive. Another category of Muslim minorities is made up of those who felt like aliens in their own countries and preferred to emigrate and look for a decent life in foreign lands.

Islamic minorities include Muslim workers who emigrated to Western Europe, Muslim populations in the East-Asian Republics of the USSR, and millions of other Muslims in India, China and the Philippines. If we really care about the development and prosperity of the Islamic world, we must think seriously about the present condition and the future prospects of these minorities, and provide them with the necessary help to preserve their identity and their cultural heritage.

b) The Palestinian issue : This question is of strategic importance for the whole Islamic world. To liberate the Palestinians from the sufferings they are enduring from occupation is more than just a moral obligation for all of us. We have no alternative but to pool our resources and unite our forces to stand up to this challenge.

I do not believe we can achieve this objective merely through diplomatic niceties of the "Camp David" style. Let us not forget the daily acts of terrorism and repression perpetrated against the Palestinians throughout the so-called "occupied territories," including Jerusalem.

Israel is afraid of the future. She will have no rest until each one of her neighbors has been neutralized and reduced to impotence. With unconditional support from the West, particularly the United States, Israel has managed to build up nuclear capabilities and to control space technology. In the meantime, we have remained virtually idle, particularly in these two particular fields, although we know that 45% of the world uranium belong to Islamic countries.

III. PROSPECTS

The main feature of the international order nowadays is the increasing imbalance between North and South, with the former controlling 80% of the planet's resources although it accounts for only 20% of the world population. Such a blatant injustice against 80% of the world population cannot go on indefinitely. The West simply cannot afford to carry on with the same pattern of industrial development while ignoring the deteriorating situation in the South. It will have to reduce its consumption of energy by approximately 20%, in the 10 to 15 years to come. Over-utilization by the West of the biosphere - which is a vital environment - has reached intolerable limits and caused serious concern about the very survival of mankind.

Although the UN General Assembly adopted at its recent special session on development, a resolution in support of development policies, we know from a 30-year experience that such policies are inefficient and counter-productive.

I had meant, in this presentation, to address the question of what I call international hypocrisy where governmental agencies from both the North and the South, are the real culprits. I was also going to address the question of South-South cooperation by pointing out the fact that it is virtually at a standstill and that the South's dependence on the North is higher than ever before. It was also my intention to speak of the role of Muslims in prospective studies.

However, I decided to confine this presentation to some of the most serious challenges facing the Islamic community. Additional data and statistics on the Islamic world are attached to the present text (see tables and graphs at the end of this chapter).

The population of the Islamic world is reckoned to be at least one billion strong. By the year 2020, it will reach between 1.635 and 1.850 billion, that is approximately 25% of the world population. These figures call for two important remarks:

1. The size of Muslim population is steadily on the increase. This prospect is a source of serious concern for the West and the Vatican who have been closely monitoring the demographic trends in the Islamic world since Muslims outnumbered catholics for the first time in 1985. The following figures may explain why there is so much vigilance and concern about the demographic factor:

a. the size of the Muslim population will be equal or even superior to that the world population in 1830;

b. In 30 years, there will be as many Muslims as there were inhabitants in the world at the beginning of this century;

c. According to Western sources, in 1980 the population of Judaeo-Christian background represented 31% of the world population as against 18% for Muslims. In 2025, the trend is expected to be reversed with 25% for the Judaeo-Christians and 33% for Muslims. Projections for the end of this century put the ratio at 20% and 40% respectively. According to this trend, Muslims, after 4 or 5 generations, will account for 50% of the world population.

2. The Western population is increasingly aging. Consequently, it will be necessary within the 10 coming years to bring in more immigrants, preferably young and highly qualified, who will help the West maintain its comfortable living standards. But the West is even more worried by the youth of Muslim population. However, they are our best asset and must do everything to cater for their needs and provide them with adequate education and training.

3. The crisis we are going through is basically due to lack of vision and of a common project for society, on the part of a ruling class which tends to ignore or neutralize those who have the qualifications, the ability and the willingness to contribute to redressing the situation. Some of the educated alike have become culturally alienated in their own country. Others, out of self-imposed censorship, have confined themselves into silence and indifference. The rest have just given themselves up to the best bidders.

4. This is also a spiritual and ethical crisis reflecting the citizen's disarray in the face of contradictory value systems: one is static and unable to adjust to the new developments and challenges, the other is alien and inconsistent with the requirements of the new environment. This dichotomy probably explains why our youth feel at a loss and are so suspicious toward the older generation.

5. There is a wide vacuum in our society and alien currents of thought are trying to sneak in and fill it up. One such intruders is the "francophonia sect" which is being preached in the Maghreb region by zealous advocates who are intent on erasing our language and culture only to replace them with an exogenous language which is spoken by hardly 4% of the world population.

Under the circumstances we have no alternative but to mobilize our resources and do everything in our power to redress the situation and pave the way for a more secure future. All Muslims, be they in the East or in the West, must endeavour to fill up the existing cultural vacuum. For it is said that nature does not tolerate vacuum.

Symposium on "the Future of the Islamic World",
Algiers, 4-7 May, 1990.

Mahdi Elmandjra
www.elmandjra.org (updated)
E-mail

* Asharq Al Awsat, 5/6/90, London
* L'Opinion, 6/5/90, Rabat
* Al Masaa, 5,6,8/4/90, Algiers
* Algérie actualité,10/5/90
* Algerian television, 5/90
* L'Eveil, 4/91, Algiers
* Al Mustaqbal Al Islami, 1/91
* Al Alam, 9/6 & 12/7/91,Rabat
* Al Kachkoul, 08/07/91, Rabat

'Ilm al Yaqin

'Ayn al Yaqin

 

 [top]

© @rchipress 1998

Agence de presse Courrier Nord-Sud Episthèmes Sommaire Webeditor