Futures of the Islamic World
Future studies: needs, facts and prospects *
French
version
I feel honored to be amongst such a distinguished
assembly of men and women who have contributed so much to the
identification of the problems besetting the Islamic World. The
subject under consideration is of a highly strategic nature,
especially at a time when the world is going through sweeping
upheavals and disruptions which have been anticipated for years
by specialists of future studies. I therefore have no illusions
about the awesome task awaiting us here and am fully aware of
the complexity of the subject.
I have been working in the field of future studies for over 25
years and have participated in approximately 200 international
conferences and seminars related to this subject. It is the first
time, I think, that an international symposium is entirely devoted
to the identification and analysis of current and anticipated
problems related to Islam. This is a sign of maturity of the
Islamic world and similar initiatives must be encouraged in the
future with the hope of initiating and supporting concrete research
projects in this important area.
Given the countries of origin of the participants in this symposium,
I hope that the sponsoring center will consider extending its
activities beyond the scope of the Arab World. After all, Arabs
account for only 20% of the Muslim population the world over.
When dealing with Islam we must all beware of ethnocentric temptations,
for Islam calls for diversity which is conducive to unity. This
prescription is enshrined in the holy Quran which says "O
mankind! Lo! We have created you male and female, and have made
you nations and tribes that ye may know one another. Lo! the
noblest of you, in the sight of Allah, is the best in conduct."
(XLIX, 13).
Accordingly, I consider this symposium to be a sort of rehearsal
for other meetings to come and which will be more representative
of the realities and potentialities of the Islamic world. We
should therefore avoid the confusing generalization which has
led the West to apply the specific reality of the Arab region
to all the countries of the Islamic World. This is not to be
regarded as a critical stand against this symposium, but rather
as an expression of a personal reservation concerning possible
attempts to confer universal validity on the proceedings and
findings of this meeting.
I. THE IMPORTANCE OF FUTURE
STUDIES
As we are addressing the future prospects
of Islam, allow me, first, to clarify some Islamic concepts.
In Islam, a clear distinction must be made between the arabic
word "Al Ghayb" (unknown) which is within the realm
of God, and the word "Mustaqbal" (future) which implies
the anticipation of developments arising from what we do or fail
to do today. We are not talking about prophecies but about forecasts.
In fact, the word "mustaqbal" does not occur in the
Quran. Instead, the Holy Book refers to one of its derivatives
which is "mustaqbil." In one of the Quranic verses,
it is said:
"Then, when they beheld it as a dense cloud coming toward
their valleys, they said: Here is a cloud bringing us rain. Nay,
but it is that which ye did seek to hasten, a rain wherein is
painful torment" (XLXI-24).
The Quran abounds with references to the notions of perception,
outlook and future:
"Oh ye who believe! Observe your duty to Allah. And let
every soul look to that which it sent on before for the morrow."
(LIX-18)
"Have they not considered the dominion of the heavens and
the earth, and what things Allah has created, and that it may
be that their own term drew night? In what fact after this will
they believe"? (IXL-18).
"Have they not seen how We have appointed the night that
they may rest therein, and the day sight-giving? Lo! therein
verily are portents for a people who believe. And (remind them
of) the Day when the Trumpet will be blown, and all who are in
the heavens and the earth, will start in fear, save him whom
Allah wills. And all come unto Him, humbled. And you will see
the hills you deemed solid flying with the flight of clouds:
the doing of Allah who perfected all things. Lo! He is informed
of what ye do" (XXVII-86,87,88).
All these verses from the Holy Quran call on us to make the best
possible use of the present and to carefully and intelligently
prepare for the future; the future meaning the rest of our life
on earth and the hereafter. Here are other Quranic verses to
the point:
"And let every soul look to that which it sent on before
for the morrow" (LIX-18).
"Send him with us tomorrow that he may enjoy himself and
play. And Lo! we shall take good care of him" (XII-12).
"And say not of anything: Lo! I shall do that tomorrow,"
(XVIII-23).
"No soul knows what it will earn tomorrow, and no soul knows
in what land it will die" (XXXII-34).
"Tomorrow they will know who is the rash liar" (LIV-26).
It should be noted that, whereas the first of the above verses
calls for exploring the future with a view to strengthening the
believer's faith in God, the third and fourth verses dismiss
any form of prophecy or divination.
In analyzing the above verses, we realize that the Quran advises
against making presumptuous claims of prescience and foreknowledge,
but it does recommend that we make projections and work out different
options in order to enhance our ability to cope with the requirements
of the future and to improve our well-being. Therefore the future
should be approached in a pluralistic manner ("futures")
thus leaving open a wide range of options.
Islam, I believe, is a "vision" of life on earth and
also in the hereafter. It carries a message which calls on Man
to seek command of his own fate and to adopt, for this purpose,
a dynamic approach in his political, economic, social and cultural
initiatives. Indeed, change is an essential ingredient for a
better future. Allah, in the Quran, says: "Lo! Allah changeth
not the condition of a folk until they (first) change that which
is in their hearts" (XIII-11).
One must therefore avoid making any confusion between the concept
of "Bid'a" (heresy) and "Ibda'a" (innovation).
The first is an opinion or attitude which is in violation of
the basic tenets of Islam. The second is, on the contrary, an
invitation to introduce changes and innovations in order to stimulate
the community's development and vitality. Any living organism
which does not accept change is doomed to extinction. This applies
to the human being and to his environment as well.
Those who are opposed to change are simply afraid to lose their
privileges. That is why they tend to equate change with heresy.
This conservative attitude was a determining factor in the decline
of the Islamic world and the proliferation of its problems. Attempts
to check the imagination and stifle innovative efforts began
in the 10th and 11th centuries when so-called religious scholars
"closed" the "door" of the "Ijtihad"
(research and investigation).
How are we going to make up for lost time? It is in searching
for an answer that one may realize the importance of the study
of the future and the necessity of scouting and scrutinizing
the "horizons". The Quran says in this connection:
"We shall show them Our portents on the horizons and within
themselves until it will be manifest unto them that it is the
Truth. Doth not thy Lord suffice, since He is witness over all
things?" (XLI-53).
The Prophet Muhammad always looked forward to the future and
very rarely looked back on the past. It is even said that when
he walked he always looked ahead and never returned his head.
Islam is a faith and a way of life. It is also an exploratory
vision of life on earth and in the hereafter. It is our outlooks
that determine our deeds for which we are answerable to ourselves,
to society and to God. In Islam Man, whatever he does, is mindful
of the impact of his action on the rest of his life as well as
on his fate in the Last Judgement.
The Prophet was reported as saying that Islam erases the past
(sins), meaning that the new Muslim convert should no longer
worry about his previous sins and must, instead, think about
the future. It also means that he will be held responsible and
answerable for his present and future deeds. The Quran says in
this connection "And let every soul look to that which it
sent on before for the morrow."
These preliminary remarks are meant to ward off any misconception
about Islam which portrays it as being fatalistic to the extent
that individuals and society as a whole have no control over
themselves. But, as Sheikh Mohamed Belarbi Alaoui put it 40 years
ago, we must clean up our own brains thoroughly from the garbage
which we have accumulated, before venturing to confront the challenges
of the future.
The study of the future is a fairly recent exercise which began
at the end of World War II. The first future surveys were carried
out by the Rand Corporation for the Pentagon in 1946. That is
why there is a fairly close relationship between strategic studies
and future studies. It was in the late '60s that future studies
began as a distinct activity. Nowadays two-thirds of research
work on the future is carried out by military institutions and
multinational corporations. Scientific research activities are
funded along the same lines.
Future studies are thriving in the industrialized nations which
account for 97% of world expenditures on that activity, particularly
in the fields of training, documentation, scientific research
and its applications. With 80% of the world population, the Third
World accounts for less than 3% of the output in the areas of
future studies. In fact, the under-estimation of the strategic
value of the future is one of the most significant symptoms of
under-development. I have always found it difficult to explain
a seemingly paradoxical rule whereby the more acute and pressing
a phenomenon is, the more we need a long-term approach to deal
with it efficiently. Development actually begins when people
have secured the means to ponder over their future and reach
a consensus on the type of society they wish to build.
Future studies are not a science in themselves, although they
make use of exact and social sciences. It is the study from an
open perspective and on the basis of alternatives and options,
of the various developments of a given situation and of the possible
consequences of a particular decision on these developments.
This is why we always talk about the futures and not one future.
The basic purpose of this exercise is to set desirable objectives
and see how to achieve them in the medium or long term by acting
upon the present.
When Einstein was asked why he was interested in the future,
he simply answered, "I intend to spend the rest of my life
there." One of the major functions of future studies is
of a pedagogical and educational nature, in that it changes mental
attitudes and contributes to reducing the time needed to keep
abreast with and make use of a rapidly expanding knowledge.
I have always emphasized that cultural values an essential ingredients
of development. There is no doubt that Islam is a powerful factor
of change and innovation and as such it is bound to play a vital
role in the evolution of our society. This development is all
the more likely as more and more people, especially the young,
have a thirst for spiritual values to compensate for the excessive
materialism of contemporary society.
When young muslims return to their cultural sources, it is because
they are seeking guidance from their endogenous values. The future
that the Arab-Islamic world is looking for depends on the revival
of Islam in its innovative acceptation, not on Islam of blind
imitation which led to the fall of a once brilliant civilization.
If the Prophet Mohammed and his companions had failed to imagine
and visualize the future, there would probably not be as many
as 1,200 million Muslims in the world today.
II. CONTEMPORARY REALITIES
A. Distinct features of today's world
The world today has many distinct features,
the most prominent of which are:
1. An acceleration of history: the total amount of knowledge
accumulated in the world doubles each 7 or 8 years. Every two
minutes, there is a new scientific article published somewhere
in the world.
2. There is an increasing complexity arising from this accelerated
pace of history.
3. A shrinking of time and space.
4. We are moving from a production-based society into a knowledge-based
society where human resources are becoming more important than
raw materials (whose price is in constant down fall) and where
capital is no longer sufficiently profitable unless it is accompanied
by "added values" - intellectual input and innovation.
To get an idea of the speed at which history is moving and the
scope of the changes brought about as well as their implications
- especially with respect to human resources -one should read
a survey conducted by the Spanish Ministry of Higher Education
in which it is said, among other conclusions, that training provided
by post-secondary educational institutions does not cater for
half of the jobs which will be on the labor market by the year
2000.
5. The role of culture is on the increase. During the first North-South
panel sponsored by the Society for International Development
(SID) in Rome in May 1978, I pointed out that the most determining
aspect in North-South relations was the cultural aspect in that
it concerned the values which determine the attitudes of individuals
and societies:
"We must address the question of value systems as a matter
of priority in order to show that the current crisis between
the North and the South cannot be overcome merely through adjustment
efforts. In fact, the crisis affects the system as a whole. Any
solution therefore requires that the objectives, functions and
structures be reconsidered. It also calls for redistribution
of power and resources according to values and criteria which
must be different from those which brought about the collapse
of the current system."
6. Whereas the South population is young and growing fast, that
of the North has been stabilized and is ageing. (50% of the Muslim
population is under 16 and more than 60% under 30).
7. Advanced technologies such as computer science, cybernetics,
robotics, artificial intelligence, space technology and biotechnology
are thriving in an industrial sector which devotes 8% to 12%
of its turnover to Research and Development, and almost as much
to staff training. The so-called "transfer of technology"
is a hoax which consists in palming off obsolete products on
the South at unjustifiably prohibitive prices. Control of technology
requires internally expended efforts and endogenous research.
This is not a commodity which can be purchased or sold. It is
rather a long process which is based on knowledge and creativity.
8. Information and communication are an ever expanding activity
which now accounts for over 40% of the world's industrial output
and 60% of the labor force. The gap between the North and the
South is incredibly wide, with the North controlling over 85%
of information-related activities. We have hardly begun to understand
the political, economic, social and cultural impact of this sector.
9. There is need for economic integration and the establishment
of economically viable entities. No economic community with less
than 150 million inhabitants can make it successfully into the
21st century. (Europe (EEC): 350 millions; North America: 350
millions; South-East Asia: 350 million.)
10. Culture, in its full acceptation, is the most strategically
important element in the relation between nations. More than
political and economic problems, those related to cultural communication
are likely to generate conflicts in the future.
11. The assumption that modernity equals westernization has turned
out to be unfounded. This is best evidenced by the Japanese experience.
The Nippon Institute for Research Advancement, NIRA, published
a report in 1989, entitled" Agenda for Japan in the 90s."
Here is an excerpt which I quote quite often:
"It has become necessary to look at the world system differently,
to put aside a long sustained view of world order based on stratification
under American rule. The new world order may be called the "Age
of Diverse Civilizations", based on the emergence of an
age with multiple co-existing civilizations. Although Westernization
led to progress on a worldwide basis in terms of material civilization,
Japan's modernization served as evidence that modernization is
difference from westernization."
12. There is a tendency for the "immaterialization of matter"
and the "materialization of the immaterial". Less and
less raw materials go into industrial products. Conversely, the
"grey matter" input generates more and more added value.
One example of such "immaterialization" is the increasing
utilization of optical fiber which led to a sharp decrease in
the use of copper in miniaturized devices, micro-processors and
electronic chips, etc. The economy is said to be getting more
and more immaterial.
In addition, "new" scientific branches like particle
physics, molecular biology and neurophysiology have developed
and expanded to the extend that Newton's conventional physics
is being challenged on the grounds that it is basically mechanical
physics and that it fails to explain all the phenomena that are
observable in the universe. Similarly, Descartes' rationalism
is being criticized as an obstacle to the understanding of phenomena
which do not fall within the rigid scope of Descartes' "method".
The consequence is that there is no longer a clear cut demarcation
line between the material and immaterial realms.
How can one claim to be a Muslim when one is not in a position
to comply even with the first injunction from Allah. Indeed,
the first Quranic verse calls on Muslims to "...read in
the name of thy Lord..." and yet the majority of Muslims
have no direct access to the Holy Book but through intermediaries?
One of the great merits of Islam lies precisely in the fact that
it abolished the notion of clergy thus making it possible for
the believer to communicate directly with God. Is the scourge
of illiteracy still plaguing us just because we cannot afford
the necessary means to eradicate it? or is it because there is
no political will to fight it? Or maybe because some rulers are
afraid that an educated Muslim society might bring about dramatic
changes in the way the Muslim community is being ruled and managed?
Since 1901, 540 Nobel Prizes have been awarded so far. Although
I have reservations about the selection and nomination procedures
which have been applied, I must point out that only three Muslims
so far have been awarded the Noble Prize (Abdus Salam, Anouar
Al-Sadate and Naguib Mahfuz). They account for merely 0.05% of
the total number of winners. Yet those three belong to a community
which accounts for over 20% of the world population. The fact
is that we have failed to develop our human resources which are
the most valuable asset for any society and will be even more
so in the future. Worse still is the fact that we are affording
the luxury of holding back the emancipation of half the Muslim
population, that is the 500 million or more women who are subjected
to anti-Islamic policies in complete disregard for the prescriptions
of the Quran which caters for all the rights of women. This is
one of the most serious and pressing problems which must be dealt
with promptly and efficiently in the Muslim world.
B. Main aspects of the backwardness
of the Islamic world
Under-development is the major feature
of the Islamic world. These are some of its aspects:
1) Economic and socio-cultural data on the Islamic world are
unavailable. The best data banks and research programs on Islam
are to be found in the industrialized nations. What is striking
is that quite a few of these activities are funded by "donations"
from our own countries. Another disturbing fact is that we are
so poorly informed about our own affairs that it was the Vatican
who published in the early 80s the first estimates about the
size of the Muslim population on the basis of a survey for which
it had mobilized 600 people for 10 years in not less than 200
countries and territories.
2) Our recent history is still colonized. Our present is, for
the major part, beyond our control. Even our future is now mortgaged
because we tend to rely blindly and unreservedly on scenarios
and surveys which are drawn up and doled out to us by others.
The chances are that our future might become but a distorted
and useless image of the others' past. The stark reality is that
the Muslim world has no control over its destiny and that in
many areas it enjoys only nominal independence. In short, decolonization
is still a remote target. It will take decades before it materializes.
Another distressing evidence of our resignation with respect
to our own future is the publication 108 years ago by British
orientalist W.C. Blunt of a book entitled "The future of
Islam." It was not until 1985, that is 103 years later,
that a Muslim from Pakistan, named Ziauddin Sardar, issued a
similar book in London, entitled "Islamic Futures."
3) One of the greatest handicaps of the Islamic world nowadays
lies in the fact that the ruling elite has no clear vision of
the future and its requirements. For it is unaware of the currents
of thought that shape today's reality and insensitive to the
major preoccupations of the population. On the other hand, it
is afraid that any move or initiative by a segment of society
might impair or restrict its privileges, its authority and its
influence.
Other related shortcomings and drawbacks include a tendency for
blind imitation of the West and for docile compliance with "recommendations"
coming from foreign intelligence sources and with "directives"
issued by advisors sent to us by protecting powers both from
the East and the West. In addition, there is no willingness to
consult the population, seek its views or accommodate its aspirations.
The citizen is kept away from the decision making process. He
has no saying in the shaping of programmes and policies which
might be instrumental in dealing with the growing challenges,
and achieving possible and desirable objectives as well as developing
a civil society with the necessary legal safeguards.
Our rulers' attention is focused on the slightest move by their
opposition, convinced as they are, that it is intent on toppling
them and removing them from power. So much so that when it comes
to tackling the ills of society they can only improvise patchwork
solutions and soothing measures with no lasting effect. In fact
they deliberately avoid any long term planning and concentrate
their efforts on time-winning devices and fool themselves with
the illusion that they are vigilant enough to foresee the oncoming
changes and deal with them as they arise.
4) Illiteracy rates in Islamic countries are the highest in the
world. In some of them they are as high as 80%. In most of them
they are not lower than 50%. The situation is getting more serious
as there are no effective literacy programmes underway. Worse
still is the fact that a new type of illiteracy is emerging amongst
literates who were subjected to brain-washing and turned into
ignorants, totally unaware of what is going in their country
and their surrounding. Therefore there is no hope for the Islamic
world to improve its condition in the future unless it resolves
to wage an effective war against illiteracy by implementing a
five-year programme and mobilizing all energies and good will
forces to eradicate this scourge for ever. But for the time being
the sad reality is that the schooling rate is very low and the
number of educational institutions, training centers, libraries,
hospitals and publishing houses is far too inadequate.
5) The quasi-absence of scientific research - Scientific research
requires a sound academic environment and a solid educational
base as well as genuine freedom of expression which fosters creativity
and innovation. Unfortunately, scientific research in the Islamic
world, and in the Third World at large, is attracting only nominal
interest and hardly any investment at all. As a result, the brain-drain
phenomenon is on the increase with more and more scientists leaving
for other countries either in search of better job opportunities
or because their initial environment was not propitious for career
development and self-accomplishment.
In this connection, I would like to make it clear that there
can be no development of scientific research and, therefore,
no progress, without the full restoration of the tradition of
the "Ijtihad" (investigative and innovative effort).
But the "Ijtihad" approach must be understood and accepted
as a modern exercise which preserves the fundamental tenets of
Islam and discards all obstacles, new and old alike, which have
hindered the emancipation of the Muslim community and kept it
in a state of decadence and backwardness. In addition to "Ijtihad",
it is essential to provide for the establishment and unrestricted
exercise of political pluralism and civil liberties.
6) The worsening crisis of socio-cultural values : most our leaders
are suffering from a shaky and dwindling credibility. There is
considerable improvisation, carelessness and nepotism in the
way they run their country's economy. Bribery amongst them is
almost standard practice. Their massive bank transfers abroad
- which is hardly a secret - are not only an insurance policy
against adversity, but also an efficient tool to manipulate internal
policies from the outside. Hence a collapse of moral and ethical
values.
7) Exogenous development models : Development planning in our
countries is based on blind imitation of the West and heavy dependence
on Western assistance. It is sad to note that policy makers in
the Islamic world make no allowance for science and technology
in their development schemes. They just seem to forget that development
is not merely programme for distributing revenue and providing
services. "Development is when science becomes culture"
("Le developpement est la science devenue culture")
as it was put by Rene Maheu, former Director General of UNESCO.
8) Insufficient respect for the rule of law and lack of safeguards
for the protection of civil liberties and human rights: too many
islamic countries live under political systems where power is
monopolized and where freedom of opinion and of speech are restricted.
Where repression, denial of basic rights and violation of human
dignity are the daily lot of the citizen, there is no hope to
create a favorable environment for the development of human resources
and knowledge and for the advancement of society as a whole.
The right to speak, to express one's difference, to innovate,
to create and to publish one's findings, will remain but an illusion
so long as we have not ensured respect for human rights and for
the rule of law.
9) The condition of woman in our societies is alarming : The
essential role of women in development is not fully recognized.
In hampering the advancement of women we are doing no less than
preventing the emancipation of half our society. It is a crime
that we should keep more than half a billion of our fellow citizens
in such precarious conditions. If the Muslim society is essentially
a backward one, it is mainly because we have confined women into
a marginal role.
As we are addressing the issue of Islam and its prospects, we
must make it clear that it is a shame that some practices, lies
and other vestiges from bygone times which were motivated by
the thirst and struggle for power are still prevailing in our
society.
I, myself, am not a specialist of Islamic law. But I did consult
qualified experts on the status of women in Islam. They maintain
quite clearly that a number of impostors had forged the Prophet's
hadiths (texts) or written new ones and claimed they were of
the Prophet's doing. Those forged texts, they explained, were
taken up by some pseudo religious scholars who kept relating
them until nowadays. In so doing, they are distorting the true
image of Islam and hindering progress and development in their
own society.
One such allegation consists in telling men that they can consult
women but should never act upon their advice. For Hadith specialists,
to attribute such an allegation to the Prophet, is sheer lie.
Another so-called Hadith which was fabricated and spread by tyrants
and impostures to suit their own purposes and hold back the thrust
of the Muslim community, claims that when the Prophet was asked
by his daughter about the most suitable thing a woman can do,
he allegedly answered that "she should see no man and arrange
for no man to see her." This is a fictitious hadith and
a total fabrication which has nothing to do with the Prophet,
especially that it is in blatant contradiction with Quranic prescriptions.
When we consult reference books on Hadith and read the writings
of specialized commentators on the Prophet's deeds and sayings,
we realize that a large number of women were legal experts in
Islamic law, custodians and relaters of Hadith or even soldiers
fighting side by side with men to uphold the banner of Islam.
To give but one example, Karima Bint Ahmed from Marw, knew by
heart the whole corpus of the "Sahih" of Al Bukhary.
She received praise and recognition for her outstanding achievement,
from Hafiz Ibn Hajjar Ashkalani, in his famous book on the work
of "Al Bukhary" entitled "Al Fath Al Barry."
I do not wish to dwell too long on this subject, but I hope that
the distinguished scholars who are with us today will enlighten
the audience with the Prophet's sayings and deeds calling for
women to be respected, honored and treated on equal footing with
men in the spiritual field as well as in earthly matters and
dealings.
Another evidence of the marginal status of women is the fact
that there are hardly any women attending this symposium. I kept
telling the sponsors of this gathering that it was necessary
to provide for equal representation of women in this meeting,
especially that we are discussing the future of the entire Muslim
community. I reminded them that during his "Farewell pilgrimage"
just before he died, the Prophet had called on his community
"to treat women well." What good will it do us to keep
her chained in ignorance and confined in a marginal status with
hardly any role to play in public life?
I must emphasize that there is no future for Islam without effective
involvement of women in the community's affairs. There is no
prospect for any Muslim society which will continue to deny women
the rights granted to her by Islam. I believe that this matter
demands urgent attention and consideration from all those who
care about the future of the Islamic community and who wish to
stimulate our potentialities and creativeness so that we may
grasp and cope with the current problems and the challenges ahead.
The condition of women leaves much to be desired throughout the
world, particularly in under-developed countries where this condition
reflects the strong relationship which exists between the economic
and socio-cultural aspects of development, on one hand, and the
protection of public liberties and human rights, on the other.
Within the Islamic world, Arab countries are even worse off than
the others in the fields of education and scientific research.
Women's condition in the Islamic world, and more particularly
in Arab countries, is a real challenge for all of us. It calls
for serious social surveys and analyses, and requires a great
deal of self-criticism as well as the rehabilitation and mobilization
of "Ijtihad" resources. We must take a fresh look at
the original sources of our culture, and read again and more
carefully, in the light of modern developments, the teachings
of the Quran. I am sure we will end up with a deeper understanding
of the nature and scope of our problems. We will also come out
with a clear vision of the solutions which are needed in the
short and medium term in order to cope with the demands and challenges
arising from the fast running movement of history.
I strongly believe that the status of women is one of the most
pressing and challenging issues with which we are confronted
today. We must stand up to the challenge at once, and look for
appropriate solutions by relying on ourselves, by using our own
resources, by mobilizing all good will forces and by refraining
from imposing on women any conditions other than those required
of men.
C. Problems requiring urgent
solutions
a) Muslim minorities : There are Muslim
minorities which are fighting for survival within larger domineering
groups. Some of them found themselves isolated following the
sudden interruption of a merger-process with other segments of
larger communities. Others stayed behind and clung to their land
after the ebbing of Islamic civilization in which they used to
thrive. Another category of Muslim minorities is made up of those
who felt like aliens in their own countries and preferred to
emigrate and look for a decent life in foreign lands.
Islamic minorities include Muslim workers who emigrated to Western
Europe, Muslim populations in the East-Asian Republics of the
USSR, and millions of other Muslims in India, China and the Philippines.
If we really care about the development and prosperity of the
Islamic world, we must think seriously about the present condition
and the future prospects of these minorities, and provide them
with the necessary help to preserve their identity and their
cultural heritage.
b) The Palestinian issue : This question is of strategic importance
for the whole Islamic world. To liberate the Palestinians from
the sufferings they are enduring from occupation is more than
just a moral obligation for all of us. We have no alternative
but to pool our resources and unite our forces to stand up to
this challenge.
I do not believe we can achieve this objective merely through
diplomatic niceties of the "Camp David" style. Let
us not forget the daily acts of terrorism and repression perpetrated
against the Palestinians throughout the so-called "occupied
territories," including Jerusalem.
Israel is afraid of the future. She will have no rest until each
one of her neighbors has been neutralized and reduced to impotence.
With unconditional support from the West, particularly the United
States, Israel has managed to build up nuclear capabilities and
to control space technology. In the meantime, we have remained
virtually idle, particularly in these two particular fields,
although we know that 45% of the world uranium belong to Islamic
countries.
III. PROSPECTS
The main feature of the international order
nowadays is the increasing imbalance between North and South,
with the former controlling 80% of the planet's resources although
it accounts for only 20% of the world population. Such a blatant
injustice against 80% of the world population cannot go on indefinitely.
The West simply cannot afford to carry on with the same pattern
of industrial development while ignoring the deteriorating situation
in the South. It will have to reduce its consumption of energy
by approximately 20%, in the 10 to 15 years to come. Over-utilization
by the West of the biosphere - which is a vital environment -
has reached intolerable limits and caused serious concern about
the very survival of mankind.
Although the UN General Assembly adopted at its recent special
session on development, a resolution in support of development
policies, we know from a 30-year experience that such policies
are inefficient and counter-productive.
I had meant, in this presentation, to address the question of
what I call international hypocrisy where governmental agencies
from both the North and the South, are the real culprits. I was
also going to address the question of South-South cooperation
by pointing out the fact that it is virtually at a standstill
and that the South's dependence on the North is higher than ever
before. It was also my intention to speak of the role of Muslims
in prospective studies.
However, I decided to confine this presentation to some of the
most serious challenges facing the Islamic community. Additional
data and statistics on the Islamic world are attached to the
present text (see tables and graphs at the end of this chapter).
The population of the Islamic world is reckoned to be at least
one billion strong. By the year 2020, it will reach between 1.635
and 1.850 billion, that is approximately 25% of the world population.
These figures call for two important remarks:
1. The size of Muslim population is steadily on the increase.
This prospect is a source of serious concern for the West and
the Vatican who have been closely monitoring the demographic
trends in the Islamic world since Muslims outnumbered catholics
for the first time in 1985. The following figures may explain
why there is so much vigilance and concern about the demographic
factor:
a. the size of the Muslim population will be equal or even superior
to that the world population in 1830;
b. In 30 years, there will be as many Muslims as there were inhabitants
in the world at the beginning of this century;
c. According to Western sources, in 1980 the population of Judaeo-Christian
background represented 31% of the world population as against
18% for Muslims. In 2025, the trend is expected to be reversed
with 25% for the Judaeo-Christians and 33% for Muslims. Projections
for the end of this century put the ratio at 20% and 40% respectively.
According to this trend, Muslims, after 4 or 5 generations, will
account for 50% of the world population.
2. The Western population is increasingly aging. Consequently,
it will be necessary within the 10 coming years to bring in more
immigrants, preferably young and highly qualified, who will help
the West maintain its comfortable living standards. But the West
is even more worried by the youth of Muslim population. However,
they are our best asset and must do everything to cater for their
needs and provide them with adequate education and training.
3. The crisis we are going through is basically due to lack of
vision and of a common project for society, on the part of a
ruling class which tends to ignore or neutralize those who have
the qualifications, the ability and the willingness to contribute
to redressing the situation. Some of the educated alike have
become culturally alienated in their own country. Others, out
of self-imposed censorship, have confined themselves into silence
and indifference. The rest have just given themselves up to the
best bidders.
4. This is also a spiritual and ethical crisis reflecting the
citizen's disarray in the face of contradictory value systems:
one is static and unable to adjust to the new developments and
challenges, the other is alien and inconsistent with the requirements
of the new environment. This dichotomy probably explains why
our youth feel at a loss and are so suspicious toward the older
generation.
5. There is a wide vacuum in our society and alien currents of
thought are trying to sneak in and fill it up. One such intruders
is the "francophonia sect" which is being preached
in the Maghreb region by zealous advocates who are intent on
erasing our language and culture only to replace them with an
exogenous language which is spoken by hardly 4% of the world
population.
Under the circumstances we have no alternative but to mobilize
our resources and do everything in our power to redress the situation
and pave the way for a more secure future. All Muslims, be they
in the East or in the West, must endeavour to fill up the existing
cultural vacuum. For it is said that nature does not tolerate
vacuum.
Symposium on "the Future of the Islamic World",
Algiers, 4-7 May, 1990.
Mahdi Elmandjra
www.elmandjra.org
(updated)
E-mail
* Asharq Al Awsat, 5/6/90, London
* L'Opinion, 6/5/90, Rabat
* Al Masaa, 5,6,8/4/90, Algiers
* Algérie actualité,10/5/90
* Algerian television, 5/90
* L'Eveil, 4/91, Algiers
* Al Mustaqbal Al Islami, 1/91
* Al Alam, 9/6 & 12/7/91,Rabat
* Al Kachkoul, 08/07/91, Rabat
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